Financial Uncertainty in Germany and its Impact on Western European Terrorism

نویسندگان

  • Mario Jovanovic
  • Thomas K. Bauer
  • Wolfgang Leininger
چکیده

This paper analyses the link between the VDAX as a proxy for European fi nancial uncertainty and the number of terror incidents in Western Europe. Considering data of the Global Terrorism Database, the number of terror incidents does – on average – not aff ect fi nancial uncertainty. In contrast, based on a behavioral model of terrorism motivated by Schmid and de Graaf (1982), lagged fi nancial uncertainty contains information for the risk of terror events. Estimation results of the negative binominal quasi maximum likelihood count data model confi rm an inverse impact of lagged fi nancial uncertainty on terrorism. Furthermore, empirical evidence leads to the conclusion of average lead time for terror incidents of 6 month. These results are potentially important for terror prevention. JEL Classifi cation: C25, G02, Z10

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تاریخ انتشار 2011